Leading Through Uncertainty: 5 Insightful Books for Humanitarian and Development Leaders

In humanitarian and international development work, uncertainty is not new. It is a constant feature of our landscape. Whether responding to natural disasters, political instability, global pandemics, or shifts in donor funding, leaders in this space must make critical decisions in high-stakes, rapidly changing environments with limited information and resources.

This level of unpredictability can challenge even the most experienced leaders. It disrupts long-term planning, strains operational systems,  and tests the foundations of community trust. Yet, uncertainty has become an essential part of leadership in this space and will remain so moving forward.

The Impact of Uncertainty on Humanitarian Leaders

Chronic uncertainty affects how we feel, think, and relate. For leaders and teams in humanitarian and development spaces, prolonged ambiguity can lead to emotional fatigue, moral injury, and decision paralysis. The pressure to act quickly can result in chronic stress and a tendency toward reactive leadership, particularly when the lives of individuals are involved.

At an organizational level, uncertainty can destabilize strategy, disrupt communication, and strain relationships both internally, and with donors and partners. Frontline teams, already operating under intense pressure, may experience heightened risk of burnout, especially when systems fail to adapt or support them effectively.

With the right mindset, awareness, and tools, I believe uncertainty can also be a powerful space for learning, deeper connection, and greater resilience.

Leading Through Uncertainty Requires Inner Work

Leading through uncertainty requires much more of us than updating our emergency contingency plans or thinking through alternative scenarios. It calls for a different way of BEING, a deeper set of capacities. It demands capacities such as self-awareness, emotional regulation, creativity, and adaptive capacity.

Leaders must ground themselves and lead themselves well before they can lead others effectively. It ALSO means cultivating safe, inclusive environments where collaboration, learning, and psychological safety are prioritized.

5 Must-Read Books for Leading Through Uncertainty

These five books have helped inform the foundation and focus of much of Rippletree's work with leaders navigating uncertain and challenging times.

Deliberate Calm: How to Learn and Lead in a Volatile World

By Jacqueline Brassey, Aaron De Smet, and Michiel Kruyt

This book introduces the idea of deliberate calm- a learnable practice of pausing, becoming self-aware, and regulating your responses under pressure. The authors, experts from McKinsey & Company, draw on their lived experiences combined with science-based practices from psychology, neuroscience, and leadership development to offer tools to help leaders shift from reactivity to intentionality.

One of its core practices is “dual awareness” which is the ability to notice both what is happening around you and what is happening within you. This skills is essential for navigating uncertainty with present and purpose. This book is a practical guide for building the adaptive capacity needed to lead through chaos with composure.

Tomorrowmind: Thriving at Work with Resilience, Creativity, and Connection—Now and in an Uncertain Future

By Gabriella Rosen Kellerman and Martin Seligman

Based on research from positive psychology, neuroscience, behavioral science, and workplace studies, Tomorromind explores the skills that help people thrive in the 21st century workplace.

Kellerman and Seligman argue that traditional models of leadership are outdated in a world where constant disruption and unpredictability are the norm.  They offer a vision for proactive resilience developing habits, mindsets, and relational practices in the workplace that help teams flourish not just cope. This book explores core skills like mattering (feeling that you and your work matter), prospection (planning for an uncertain future), and building connection under pressure. It is a timely resource for leaders looking to build future-ready organizational cultures grounded in well-being and purpose.

Unleash Your Complexity Genius: Growing Your Inner Capacity to Lead

By Jennifer Garvey Berger and Carolyn Coughlin

Berger and Coughlin introduce the concept of “complexity genius” which they describe as “the natural ease and delight with which we handle our complex, confusing, and uncertain lives”. They offer practical tools to help leaders strengthen their “complexity fitness” by growing the inner capacities needed to navigate uncertainty and ambiguity.

One of the book's key contributions is connecting complexity to nervous system awareness, showing how our physiological responses influence how we show up in uncertainty and how simple tools like breathing, moving, laughing and wondering can help us manage reactivity in the body, stay grounded under pressure, and lead from a more centered, connected place in the midst of uncertainty and change.

Changing on the Job: Developing Leaders for a Complex World

By Jennifer Garvey Berger

Changing on the Job builds on many of the foundational ideas Jennifer Garvey Berger explores throughout her work in leading through complexity, including those shared in Unleash your Complexity Genius. While both books examine the inner capacities needed to navigate complexity, this one delves more deeply into adult development theory and how we, as adults, evolve through different stages of meaning-making. These stages shape how we interpret our experiences, manage complexity, and relate to others.

This book is especially valuable for those who support the growth of others (e.g. coaches, facilitators, and organizational development professionals). Drawing on the work of Robert Kegan, Berger offers insights into how meaning-making develops over time and how we can better meet people where they are in their learning and leadership journeys.

The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Finding Your Inner Strength and Overcoming Life’s Hurdles

By Karen Reivich and Andrew Shatté

Grounded in decades of research in cognitive-behavioral psychology, The Resilience Factor offers a practical and accessible roadmap for building resilience from the inside out. Reivich and Shatté outline seven foundational skills of resilience to help individuals navigate adversity with greater self-awareness and optimism.

This book introduces the ABC model (Adversity, Belief, Consequence) as a framework for identifying and shifting the thought patterns that shape our emotional responses. Through exercises, reflection prompts, and real-life examples, it equips readers with tools to recover from setbacks without becoming overwhelmed.

While not written specifically for leaders, this book is highly relevant for those working in high-pressure, unpredictable environments. It is also a valuable resource for coaches supporting others in building mental and emotional resilience.

Final Thoughts

These five books have helped shape the focus and approach of much of Rippletree's work with leaders and teams navigating complex contexts. At Rippletree, we believe that sustainable change starts from within. We partner with individuals, teams and organizations to cultivate the inner and relational capacities needed to lead with resilience and adaptability.

Through coaching, facilitation, and tailored growth and learning experiences, we support leaders and change makers working in humanitarian, development and social impact spaces.

If you are navigating leadership in these sectors, we would love to connect. Let's explore how we can partner to support your growth, learning, and leadership journey even in the midst of uncertainty.

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About the Author

Ashley Clayton Hertz, Ed.D. is the founder of Rippletree, a social enterprise that partners with leaders and organizations working in complex, resource-constrained environments. Ashley is also an Associate Certified Coach (ACC) accredited by the International Coaching Federation (ICF) and a global education specialist with over 30 years experience. Her work is grounded in the belief that sustainable change starts from within and grows through authentic, values-driven leadership.